Tour de France 2018 - Stages 18 - 20

Introduction
The final three stages are here, and we have the queen stage, and epic final haul in the mountains before the famous final stage criterium around the streets of Paris. The dream is that no one will know who will win going into these final three days. The previous two weeks haven't been easy but it has been designed to keep the race exciting right until the final day. Stages 18 and 19 are really hard and both feature significant amounts of climbing and mountain finishes however they are totally different stages and will be incredibly hard for the team of the yellow jersey to control.

Stage 18 - Pamplona - La Pierre St Martin - 172km

We're staying in Spain for the start of this stage and after the roll-out from Pamplona the first 60km are almost entirely flat so expect to see the peloton riding hard until a break is formed, there will be a lot of teams by this point who have had very lean Tours and they will be looking for a stage win today. Expect to see a high quality break forming early on who will be able to take their advantage onto the opening climb, Alto Aristu (4.7km @ 6.3%). From the bottom of this climb though the race takes on a very different shape, since the start of the stage we've had under 700m of climbing but in the final 110km we cram 3,700m of climbing. After the Aristu there's some rolling terrain towards the French border and the Port de Larrau. This climb has been used twice before in the Tour from its harder northern side but it's still going to be an unrelenting 10km @ 6.3% from the Spanish side. From the top of the Larrau there's a very quick descent down to the village of the same name before a brief section of flat into the town of Saint-Engrace where the Saint Martin begins. The road to the ski resort will be used in the 2015 Tour de France but it will be from a due north direction so that it includes the Col du Soudet, the climb is steeper from this direction but it's shorter and includes fewer sections that are as steep as on this route. The start of the climb is fairly benign with nothing steeper than 6% for the first 3km. This is merely to lull you into the climb, what follows is 3km where the gradient kicks up to 11% before another lull and another sustained section which features the steepest roads of 25%! The riders can breathe a sigh of relief at this point but there's still 6km and 450m of climbing to be done before the top, anyone who was put into the red on the earlier steeper stretches can easily be dislodged on the final run to the ski resort.

Stage 19 - Laruns - Ris - 136.3km

If the Tour hasn't been decided by now then this will be an unbelievable final stage. There's no opportunity to be eased into the stage as we're climbing the Col d'Aubisque immediately from when the flag is dropped. The Aubisque is sustained and although you would normally expect an early break to go here, it won't be guaranteed on this stage. With a stage this short and as the penultimate one of the race, the team of one of the riders hoping to take the stage might decide to make this really hard from the start. There's very little flat ground on the route today so there's no really disadvantage from going for it early.
After the Aubisque we have the famous and painful Tourmalet to deal with from the west side. There's not much to say about the Tourmalet that hasn't already been said. It's incredibly hard and with just 52km to ride from the summit it will be a key strategic point in the race. Although the focus will be on the front of the race, share a thought for the sprinters. Because the stages are shorter the time limit will be reduced as well, there will be a few riders having an absolute nightmare here as they try and make it to the finish inside 25% of the winner's time.
After the Tourmalet there's a descent and then an immediate climb of the Col d'Aspin, it's the easiest of the three "giants" today but at this stage it's an obstacle that will be too much for most of the peloton. From the top of the Aspin there's a long descent to the town of Arreau and a brief section of flat before the final test of the 2018 Tour. The Cote de Ris has never been used before but it's very steep and will be a fitting end to the Tour.

Stage 20 - Versailles - Paris - 93.7km
The traditional final dash is retained this year. The riders will start with a loop around the beautiful grounds of Versailles before they head into the French capital via the Bois de Boulogne. Don't expect anything other than the usual gradual pace wind up before the mass sprint to the line on the Champs Elysees.
Who will be in yellow though? The lack of time trialling kilometers means that you don't need to be strong against the clock to win here which brings guys like Pozzovivo, J.Rodriguez and Bardet into the frame. However, there's not loads of huge climbing days - even the days that do have a lot of climbing tend to have periods where the difficulties do abate. In reality the winner of this Tour is unlikely to be much different from a Tour which had 200km+ stages and an average stage length of well over 140km. But, the time gaps should be smaller and there should be excitement right until the final stage and the top 10 should be more compact.

Conclusion
So that is the whole route of the 2018 Tour de France. It started as a challenge to see if it's possible to design a Tour de France which no stages over 200km in length and with an average stage length of less than 160km. That has been achieved, but, has it retained the essence of the Tour? Is it still epic? Over the next two weeks I will be speaking to pro cyclists, race designers, fans and hopefully journalists to see what their thoughts are on this route.