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Monday 22 June 2015

2020 Vision - World Championship Road Race

Introduction
Predicting future success is difficult but it's even harder if you don't know the route that they'll be racing on. At the moment it seems to be a two horse race between Drenthe in the Netherlands and Vicenze in Italy. Given that Italy have a habit of getting the World Championships every 5 or so years I would expect them to win out, given that it will have been 7 years since they last had the World Champs in 2020. There are plenty of hills around Vicenze so I would expect the winner to be a mix of overall contender in Grand Tours and hilly classics rider.

Sven Erik Bystrøm
Age in 2020: 28
Current Team: Team Katusha
Best World Champs result: 1st 2014 U23 

Sven is a proven winner in the World Championships
Bystrøm launched onto the pro scene in 2011 at the age of 19 when he came 6th in the senior Norwegian championship. He followed that promising start in 2012 with a win in the Rund um den Finanzplatz U23 race, 4th in the senior National Championships and 4th in the opening stage of the Tour de l'Avenir. He finished the season with a promising 21st in the U23 World Championships which suggested he would be capable of hanging with the best riders over the longer distances.
2013 didn't produce any wins but he did grind out some high quality results including a 3rd in the Norwegian U23 champs and 13th overall in the Tour des Fjords. 2014 was his last year at Team Oster Hus - Ridley and he only managed one win, the U23 World Championships - when he was a trainee at Katusha. He also grabbed a number of high placings riding against World Tour pros at the Tour des Fjords where he came 10th overall.
It's been a decent year for the Norwegian as a professional, he has shown potential in the hilly races and he's held his own even in the longest races - two of the ingredients required to win the World Championships. Bystrøm is clearly a hugely talented rider but there's one thing standing in this way, no one has ever won the U23 World Championships and gone on to take the senior championship as well. That has to end at some point though.....

Miguel Angel Lopez
Age in 2020: 26
Current Team: Astana Pro Team
Best World Champs result: 26th 2014 U23 

Angel Lopez is another hugely promising Columbian
There's a big caveat to this selection, Angel Lopez requires a seriously difficult course to be competitive at the World Championships. We haven't had a pure climber win the World Champs since the new millennium and you could argue that we've never had a pure climber win the race. It's debatable whether a course will be put together that would suit a climber in Vicenze but it's impossible to ignore a talent like Angel Lopez.
Unbelievably he's only been racing since 2014 but he's already built a palmares that most riders would be proud of at the end of their careers. In 2014 he won the Tour de l'Avenir and the king of the mountains jersey, this was built on an incredible run on the last four mountain stages where he failed to finish lower than 5th including a win on the stage to the ski resort of La Rosiere.
In his first year as a pro he had a mediocre start, racing the Colombian national champs in February and then the Vuelta Ciclista a Catalunya although he pulled out of the latter. He then headed over to Turkey where he finished 15th overall but his best result was a 2nd place on the second mountain stage to Selcuk. He finished the Tour of Switzerland in 7th overall, the highest ranked Astana rider, and he also came 4th in the Queen stage to Rettenbachgletscher alongside Geraint Thomas.
Astana might decide to ease him into pro cycling and not race him at the Tour de France, but if they do decide to start him in Utrecht then he could prove a valuable asset to Nibali in the mountains. As for his World Championship chances of success; if he continues to improve like he is at the moment then he won't even need a climber's course to succeed, he'll just need some hills and the buckets of talent that he already has.

Dylan Teuns
Age in 2020: 28
Current Team: BMC Racing
Best World Champs result: 29th 2014 U23
If Dylan can carry his U23 form into the pros then he will
dominate.

It's been a gradual improvement for the Belgian during his career. He's made steady progress as an amateur but it's his form as a pro that has really been impressive. He won the Junior Omloop Het Nieuwsblad in 2010 but it was another 4 years until he stood on the top step again. That may look like a disappointing return for a young rider and for a few years the results were severely lacking. However, in 2012 he began to deliver on early promise with 4th in the Ronde de l'Isard and 4th in the last stage of the Giro Valle d'Aosta but they were the exceptions in a year that, again, was generally disappointing.
2013 was more of the same for Teuns, he came 5th in the Liege-Bastogne-Liege U23 race and followed that up with another good result in the Ronde de l'Isard, this time finishing 3rd overall. 2014 was the year that his undeniable talent was finally realised. He raced in eight stage races and only finished one without a top 10 on a stage, and won a stage in 3 of the races. It wasn't just the U23 races where Teuns showed promise either, as a stagiare at BMC he came 10th overall at the Tour of Britain with 3 top 10's on stages. In addition to his obvious stage race success he also performed well in the one day races, coming second in both the U23 Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Giro di Lombardia.
So far this year BMC have eased him into racing but he's managed 4th overall at the Tour of Belgium, 3rd in the Volta Limburg and 13th in the Fleche Wallonne which is arguably his best result of the season. There's no indication of what Teuns will race next but he's clearly a talented rider in the mountains and BMC will appreciate all the help they can muster for Van Garderen in the Tour so maybe he will be heading there. If not then he can keep ticking along at this level for the year and get as many high placings as possible, he certainly has all the skills required to be World Champion in 5 years.

Adam Yates
Age in 2020: 27
Current Team: Orica GreenEDGE
Best World Champs result: 19th 2013 U23

Is there anything more assured in cycling than the success
of the Yates' twins?
Picking a Yates brother for future success is the closest thing to a sure bet in cycling. After picking his brother in the 2020 Vision - Liege-Bastogne-Liege article I've turned to Adam now. Clearly he's an extremely talented rider but it wasn't until 2013 when this talent started to come out. That year he came 12th in the U23 Liege-Bastogne-Liege, 16th in the Ride London Classic and 2nd overall in the Tour de l'Avenir, including 3 podium places on stages.
He turned pro in 2014 and I think the general consensus was that he would be able to reach the heights of professional cycling but not immediately. Instead, he turned up on the 1st of January as a complete pro cyclist and proceeded to destroy the peloton. He won the overall at the Tour of Turkey and the Queen stage, 5th Overall in the Tour of California and 6th overall in the Dauphine Libere he backed those results up with strong performances in the one day races by winning the GP Industria in late July - he also finished the Vuelta as a first year pro which showed remarkable stamina.
This year hasn't really lived up to his first year as a pro but he has still had a best result of 9th overall in the Tirreno-Adriatico and 20th in the Dauphine. He's heading to the Tour at the start of July and I would expect that he will be riding in support of his brother. He should also be part of the British team for the Worlds in Richmond and again he will probably be riding in support for Geraint or his brother but he will be hoping for a top 20 placing which will represent a massive result for the young Brit.

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