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Monday 1 June 2015

2020 Vision - Tour de France King of the Mountain winner

Introduction
Obviously the KOM jersey can be won in a number of different ways however in this instance I'm using it to signify the top 4 pure climbers in 2020. I have tried to pick just the pure climbers as I will have a separate 2020 vision for my predictions of Tour de France winners.

Heiner Rodrigo Parra
Age in 2020: 28
Current Team: Caja Rural - Seguros RGA
Best GT Performance: Not Raced


Parra has the build of a climber and the name of a climber
If you're looking for top quality climbers then you can't go wrong by directing the search towards the cyclists of Columbia. Heiner Rodrigo currently rides in the second division with Caja Rural but he had a pretty incredible amateur career which he has continued into his two years as a pro.
Heiner first came to prominence in 2013 when he won a stage of the Ronde de l'Isard finishing in a mountaintop finish to Goulier-Neige, he came 12th overall in the race. He followed that up with 5th overall in the Tour Alsace including 2nd on the Queen stage and 7th overall in the Tour de l'Avenir. He turned pro the following year and had a slightly disappointing season with 23rd in the Volta a Portugal and 15th in the Tour of Azerbaijan the highlights.
This year has been a significant step up in performance with the highlight being a 12th overall in the Tour of Turkey with two top 10s on the mountain stages. It's unclear what Parra's future schedule is but a trip to the Vuelta might be on the cards and if so then it will be great to see what he can do in the high mountains with the other pros. After all, we all know how good Parra's can be at climbing!

Tao Geoghegan Hart
Age in 2020: 25
Current Team: Axeon Cycling Team
Best GT Performance: Not Raced


Geoghegan Hart launching an attack on a climb.
Tao is ridiculously talented. If you've been following his career it's worrying to think he's only 20. He is due a mega contract in the next few years and when he does I'm sure he'll end up as one of the best climbers in the peloton in 5 years.
In 2012 Tao came 21st in the Junior World Championships which put him in a box marked "to be watched". His big results however, came in 2013, he came 3rd overall in the Junior Paris-Roubaix, overall and a stage of the Tour of Istria, 5th overall in the Course de la Paix and Overall and a stage of the mountainous Giro Della Lunigiana. Miraculously he managed to maintain that level despite making a step up in competition in 2014. He came 3rd in the Junior Liege-Bastogne-Liege, 10th overall in the Tour de l'Avenir and 15th in the Tour of Britain against World Tour opposition. If anything, 2015 might actually be even better than the previous 3 years. He has already bagged 3rd in the U23 Liege-Bastogne-Liege, 8th overall in the Tour of the Gila and 13th overall in the Tour of California. He's racing in an American team so I would expect him to race the American circuit for the rest of the year and then join up the the British Cycling team for the Tour de l'Avenir and the World Championships.
Tao is clearly a capable all round rider, however it's on the mountains and steep hills where he becomes extraordinary. Despite being just 20 he has already proven himself at the highest level in the sport so predicting him for future greatness is almost entirely without risk.

Daniel Whitehouse
Age in 2020: 25
Current Team: Team UKYO
Best GT Performance: Not Raced


Whitehouse is a dark horse here but
could be a major talent.
Selecting Daniel here is a risk because he is more of an unknown quantity. He has achieved very strong results in the Asian tour and I would expect that he will be making the step up to the World Tour within the next 5 years.
He raced with Rapha Condor JLT in 2014 and had some good results, the highlights were 4th in the New Zealand Cycle Classic and 13th on the Tour of Japan stage up the hideously steep Mt Fuji.
This year has been an improvement for the New Zealander. He came 3rd in the Tour de Ijen in Indonesia he also got another 13th on the stage to Mt Fuji in the Tour of Japan.
He's still only 20 and yet has achieved some really strong results. If he's given the opportunities to impress in bigger races then he needs to grab them and get himself a contract with a larger team. If he does that then I think he can end up being one of the best climbers in the peloton.

Gavin Mannion
Age in 2020: 28
Current Team: Jelly Belly p/b Maxxis
Best GT Performance: Not Raced


Mannion is at home on the biggest ascents.
After a 6th place finish in the recent American National championships Mannion has seen his stock rise considerably. As a young rider Gavin looked like he might be the next American hope, he's deviated from that slightly since, but he still looks like being a phenomenal rider.
Mannion showed some good form in 2010 by coming 5th on a stage of the Giro Valle D'aosta and 4th on a stage of the Coupe des Nations Ville Saguenay. 2011 was a disappointing season in general but 2012 showed that he was back to his best with 3rd in the National Championships and 17th overall in the USA Pro Cycling Challenge the highlights. It was 2013 though which was probably Mannion's best year. He came 5th in the National Championships, 6th overall in the Tour of the Gila, 15th in the U23 Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 8th overall in the Tour l'Avenir including 6th on the stage to Stade Francois Longchamp on the Col de la Madeline. 2014 was another disappointing year but so far in 2015 he has come 3rd overall in the Tour of Gila and 6th in the National Championships. He's suited to the late summer American stage races which tend to take in huge amounts of climbing so watch for him there. If he can improve his consistency and string together a couple of good seasons then he has a very lucrative contract awaiting, you would expect.

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