5 Big Questions for the Tour de France

Watching cycling has a habit of making even the most optimistic of person very cynical. It can be hard to fully invest in incredible performances when you know what might come out a week, months or even years later. However, in the build up to the Tour, when the weather is bronzing even the most pasty of cycling fans skin, it's impossible not to feel a huge sense of optimism about the upcoming three weeks of racing that will be broadcast all day and then pawed over all evening across the cycling websites. With just 9 days to go until the start in Utrecht we kick off our Tour de France build up by asking 5 big questions for the Tour de France.

5. What kind of support can BMC offer Van Garderen in the mountains?

Will Van Garderen be left alone again?

Van Garderen's performances in the Dauphine suggest that he can beat his previous best of 5th at the Tour, but, can his team provide him with enough support to be able to crack the podium? At first glance it seems unlikely, the team are lacking any serious mountain support for Tejay and he will probably end up isolated on a lot of the more mountainous stages. BMC are taking Samuel Sanchez and Damiano Caruso, which sounds strong from the outside but Sanchez is 37 and hasn't finished the Tour since 2011 and Caruso has already raced 44 days including the Giro before he lines up for the Tour. Behind those two there's just a succession of decent strong domestiques and hard men for the flat but they won't be able to offer much help when the road tilts upwards.
Tejay will be hoping that Sanchez and Caruso do turn up fresh enough to be able to hang with him deep into the end game of the stage. If not then Van Garderen will be wasting a lot of energy compared to his better equipped rivals.

4. Who will be the biggest surprise at the Tour?
Every year we see someone turn up at the Tour and smash up everyone's expectations and this year won't be any different. I think the biggest surprise will come from the MTN Qhubeka team. Louis Meintjes has a real chance of getting a top 10 at the Tour or potentially winning the king of the mountains jersey if he turns his hand to that. He will be supported by a very strong team featuring 4 other African riders. Daniel Teklehaimanot looked remarkable at the Dauphine Libere when he won the KoM jersey and he will be hoping to get in plenty of breaks, especially in the mountains.

How big can Teklehaimanot's impact be a the Tour?

I think the other surprise will come from the Bora-Argon 18 team and Sam Bennett. Bizarrely they have publicly stated that they will be backing the German Dominik Nerz at the Tour for the overall. He's a perfectly adequate rider but the top 10 is well out of his reach and, to be honest, top 20 might be a stretch as well. However, in Sam Bennett they have a rider who has a serious chance to win at least one stage. It will be the first Grand Tour for the young Irish rider but that means that the pressure is off and he's able to pick off stages with no expectation.
Also don't discount the other wildcard team, Bretagne-Seche, and their Argentinian rider Eduardo Sepulveda. He's had an excellent season so far, 2nd in the Tour of Turkey was a highlight, and he recently came 5th overall in the Tour's third warm-up race the Route du Sud. A top 10 would be stunning but a podium in the white jersey competition is probably more realistic.

3. How much was Nibali sandbagging at the Dauphine?
Nibali does have a habit of being able to look rubbish in the build up to the Tour and then produce a result. He did exactly the same last year before winning 4 stages and the overall but his performances were better in 2014. So far this year he has a stage race overall best of 10th, in the Tour of Romandie and he's only worn a yellow jersey once all season, at the Dauphine. It's also true that Nibali was helped massively by the absence of Quintana and the crashes of Contador and Froome last year. This year he won't be so lucky but this could help him, it's very easy to look at his form and dismiss him but he's got an unbelievably strong team and he might just be able to peak at exactly the right time.

2. Can Saxo-Tinkoff put together a team that will be able to help Contador?
Although Contador dominated the Giro, he did so in spite of his team who were worryingly weak. At the Giro the second highest placed Tinkoff-Saxo rider was Roman Kreuziger who came 28th almost 2 hours down and the 3rd highest placed Tinkoff rider was Michael Rodgers who came 31st - those 3 were the only riders in the top 50 for the team. It's likely that they will bring Kiserlovski into the team, he didn't race the Giro, and he has shown enough this season to suggest that he might be able to hang around with Contador until the end of the toughest stages. Contador will suffer however with the inclusion of Sagan and one other rider to support the Slovakian, probably Maciej Bodnar.
He managed to win the Giro by being clearly the better rider but at the Tour that won't be the case and if he's constantly left isolated then he will suffer towards the end of the Tour.

1. Can Thibault Pinot win the Tour?

Pinot; the new face of French cycling

Well, no, probably not. To be honest, he's in the second level of overall contenders. Behind Froome, Contador, Quintana and Nibali, and alongside Bardet, Van Garderen and Rui Costa. He came 3rd last year but it's important to note that most of the best riders abandoned and Quintana wasn't there and he was still 8:15 behind Nibali. I suspect that the gap between them both will be a little narrower this time and Pinot did look very impressive when he won the Queen Stage of the Tour de Suisse but I can't see him getting onto the podium. I would love to be proven wrong though because he's an incredibly exciting rider and he represents all that is good about cycling, of all the predictions I've made this is the one that I'm keenest to have messed up on.