Three Things we've learnt so far

Wow! What an opening weekend of the 2015 Tour de France. We've had the fastest stage in Tour history on Saturday and the most exciting stage for a number of years on Sunday. In this post we will look at the three things that we've learnt from the first two stages.

3. Quintana is in Crisis

Quintana is in a dangerous place at the moment.

It might be a bit early to suggest that Quintana is in crisis but he didn't have a good time trial and he's now lost 1.23 to the other major favourites before we've even hit the cobbles of stage 4. He is the best climber in the race so this time loss isn't decisive yet, but, he would've hoped to have lost that time for the whole first week rather than just the first two days. He now has to face the cobbled stage 4 and team time trial without losing any more time to guys like Froome or Contador. It's going to be a frantic week as the Columbian focuses on maintaining his time gap to the favourites, he might even be able to reduce it on the stages finishing on the Mur-de-Huy or the Mur-de-Bretagne.

2. Bardet vs Pinot

Pinot is storming ahead in the French battle.

In the battle of the French riders, Pinot is definitely winning. He had a storming time trial on Saturday where he finished best of all the realistic GC contenders and then he was caught behind the split on Sunday. Bardet, on the other hand, has had a very difficult start to the race. He's been overshadowed by Peraud, his elderly team mate and he lies 3 minutes behind Cancellara and 1.53 behind Pinot.
Both have the potential to finish in the top 5 but Bardet will need his luck to change drastically if he's to do this. Pinot is in a similar situation to Quintana in that he needs to stop losing time in this first week, the difference however is that Quintana has a team who can turn in a decent time trial, Pinot doesn't have that luxury.

1. Van Garderen for GC

Could Van Garderen surprise us all?

I was a little unsure of Van Garderen's chances in the Tour. He's a strong rider but his time is sub par and his climbing is not as strong as the other overall challengers. However, in these two stages he's shown that he does have an important characteristic which is that he's always at the front. His team is built for the opening week and they need to build as large a buffer as they can now and in the TTT before they wilt in the mountains.
Tejay is the highest ranked of the overall contenders at the moment and he should fare well on the cobbles, he also has one of the best team time trialling squads behind him so, if he takes advantage of all those opportunities, he could enter the Pyrenees with a minute advantage over everyone else. If that happens then he could hold it to Paris.

The Debutantes: What to expect

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Every year we have a bunch of debutantes making their first steps in the biggest and best grand tour of the lot. This year is no exception but, this year, we have an incredibly talented pool of Tour virgins who also qualify for the white jersey, I have listed them all here along with a brief description of what the race might hold for them.

Kudus is one of 2 Eritreans on the Tour.

 Merhawi Kudus

Country: Eritrea

Team: MTN-Qhubeka

Age: 21

GT Experience: 92nd 2014 Vuelta

What to expect in a sentence: Youngest rider on the Tour and a fantastic climber who will ride in support of Louis Meintjes and may be given is own chances later in the race.

Florian Senechal

Country: France

Team: Cofidis

Age: 22

GT Experience: None

What to expect in a sentence: Very strong classics style rider, he will be targeting the first week, look to see him on the attack in the cobbled stage.

Adam Yates

Country: Great Britain

Team: Orica GreenEDGE

Age: 22

GT Experience: 82nd 2014 Vuelta

What to expect in a sentence: He will probably be deployed to ride in support of his brother but he might have his own chances on the mountainous stages.

Dylan Van Baarle

Country: Netherlands

Team: Cannondale-Garmin

Age: 23

GT Experience: DNF 2014 Giro 

What to expect in a sentence: Tour of Britain winner last year and strong time trialler, could be a top 10 on the opening stage.

Louis Meintjes

Country: South Africa

Team: MTN-Qhubeka

Age: 23

GT Experience: 55th 2014 Vuelta

What to expect in a sentence: Unbelievable talent, he will have the support of his team and a top 10 overall certainly isn’t out of reach.

Christophe Laporte

Country: France

Team: Cofidis

Age: 23

GT Experience: None

What to expect in a sentence: A bit of an unknown quantity, he showed some good form earlier in the season on the hilly races so expect him to go well in the first week.

Bob Jungels

Country: Luxembourg

Team: Trek Factory Racing

Age: 23

GT Experience: DNF 2014 Vuelta

What to expect in a sentence: He comes complete with the Luxembourg time trial and road race champion’s jersey and he has a good chance of a high GC placing after the first week.

Emmanuel Buchmann

Country: Germany

Team: Bora-Argon 18

Age: 22

GT Experience: None

What to expect in a sentence: Surprise German national road champion and excellent climber, came 7th on the stage to La Toussuire in last years Tour de l’Avenir.

Michael Valgren

Country: Denmark

Team: Tinkoff-Saxo

Age: 23

GT Experience: 128th 2014 Vuelta

What to expect in a sentence: Good rider in the hilly classics but he will be used to shepherd Contador through the difficult first week.

Wellens is already a classy all rounder

Tim Wellens

Country: Belgium

Team: Lotto-Soudal

Age: 24

GT Experience: 54th 2014 Giro

What to expect in a sentence: Very classy rider, winner of the Eneco Tour and 4th in Lombardy last season, he will be giving freedom because the team don’t have a GC threat.

Eduardo Sepulveda

Country: Argentina

Team; Bretagne Seche Environment

Age: 24

GT Experience: None

What to expect in a sentence: Missed out on his debut Tour last year with illness, he should be the protected GC rider for this small French team.

Wilco Kelderman

Country: Netherlands

Team: LottoNL-Jumbo

Age: 24

GT Experience: 17th 2013 Giro, 7th 2014 Giro, 14th 2014 Vuelta

What to expect in a sentence: The current Dutch time trial champion, LottoNL-Jumbo have a woeful record so far this season and it will be interesting to see who they support for the overall.

Marco Haller

Marco has already tasted overall success at the Tour des Fjords
this year.

Country: Austria

Team: Katusha

Age: 24

GT Experience: None

What to expect in a sentence: He has been on remarkable form in the last few months and capped it off by winning the National championships, the first week suits him best.

Warren Barguil

Country: France

Team: Giant-Alpecin

Age: 23

GT Experience: 38th 2013 Vuelta, 8th 2014 Vuelta

What to expect in a sentence: There’s huge pressure on the Frenchman’s shoulders, he has been talked up as the next Tour de France winner from France but he’s had an indifferent season so far, don’t write him off.

Kenneth Vanbilsen

Country: Belgium

Team: Cofidis

Age: 25

GT Experience: None

What to expect in a sentence: There’s not a huge amount to recommend Vanbilsen, he has got a decent sprint on him so maybe he will be used in Bouhanni’s leadout.

Angelo Tulik

Country: France

Team: Europcar

Age: 24

GT Experience: 123rd 2014 Giro

What to expect in a sentence: Slots nicely into Europcar’s Tour strategy, which is to get into breakaways and hope that one of them stays away until the end of the stage.

Luke Rowe

Country: Great Britain

Team: Sky

Age: 25

GT Experience: DNF 2013 Vuelta, 141st 2014 Vuelta

What to expect in a sentence: The Welshman is purely there to guide Froome through the difficult, classic’s style opening stages, he’ll then be there to do the early pace setting later on.

Georg Priedler

Country: Austria

Team: Giant-Alpecin

Age: 25

GT Experience: 36th 2013 Vuelta, 27th 2014 Giro

What to expect in a sentence: The newly crowned Austrian time trial champion is a very handy climber and should be used in support of Barguil.

Matthews is a prolific winner at the Vuelta and Giro

Michael Matthews

Country: Australia

Team: Orica-GreenEDGE

Age: 25

GT Experience: 110th 2013 Vuelta, DNF 2014 Giro, 7th 2014 Vuelta, DNF 2015 Giro

What to expect in a sentence: Amazingly Matthews is yet to start the Tour but he’s won 5 stages in the Giro and Vuelta combined and he is one of the favourites for the green jersey.

Sam Bennett

Country: Ireland

Team: Bora-Argon 18

Age: 24

GT Experience: None

What to expect in a sentence: Bennett is an incredible sprinting talent but it’s probably a little too early in his career to expect a stage win, he goes very well in the wind so he might be able to get some podium places in the opening week.

The Best and The Worst Kits at The Tour

There's only four days to go until the best 198 riders in the world set off for their 3 week schlep around France. We've talked about who will be riding and where they will be riding but we've yet to mention what they will be wearing. Cycling kits exist in a perfectly balanced vacuum, there has to be an equal amount of rubbish kits for the brilliant ones to exist and today we're calling out the bad ones and praising the stylish gems that our favourite riders will don for July.

Abbie Saunders is Bike Route Hub's resident fashionista. With her sharp tongue and sharp style she's perfectly happy tearing chunks out of the kit designers who have punished 25 poor riders by making them wear their hideous creations for a year. When she isn't doing this she also writes on figsandfootprints.blogspot.com which focuses on healthy living and exercise. Maybe finish that burger and pint whilst reading this blog.......

Five Worst

Trek Factory Racing ~ 3.5/10

Despite the futuristic appeal of the silver space-age gloves and ankle contour moon boots, Team Trek’s kit seems a little, well, effeminate. The slick body contour fit and bizarre reverse plunge neckline not only looks like a leotard design more suited to a performance gymnast, but also strikes me as an immediate sunstroke hazard. In the mid-Summer heat of Tour De France, I wouldn’t fancy myself with those tan lines…

Europcar ~ 3/10

If you’re Irish, green may well be your lucky colour. But otherwise motor folklore dictates that green is a veritable car crash. Type ‘green cars crashing’ into Google and you will be met with images of Andy Warhol’s famous painting ‘Green Car Crash’ and headlines such as ‘Green Party leader delivers “car crash” performance’. Would you trust anything green on the roads based on this correlation? Sorry Europcar…

Lotto NL-Jumbo ~ 2/10

If, like me, you find yourself asking what your own chances are of winning the lottery, you may also, like me, find yourself asking what the chances are of Team Lotto NL winning the Tour De France… Needless to say, the team’s official sponsor emblazoned across the front does not instil me with a huge amount of confidence.

Team AG2R-La Mondiale ~ 1.5/10

In essence, there is very little wrong with Team Ag2r’s kit. It is well streamlined, with good coverage and neat brand representation. However if you are inclined toward the immature, you may want to question the colour scheme. I can’t help but think that turquoise shorts may have been a little more fresh and eye-catching than these ‘I soiled myself on the Tour De France’ meggings.

Tinkoff-Saxo ~ 1/10

Poor Team Tinkoff… The very misguided decision to photoshop the team mates in against a black background does nothing for the fact that a black crotch patch already draws attention to the area. Add this to the fact that their team name is ‘Tinkoff' and you may begin to find yourself wondering if there’s a crotch there at all…

Five Best

Cannondale-Garmin ~ 7.5/10

The new Garmin kit is reminiscent of a Softmints branding colour scheme. Who doesn’t like a Softmint? The pattern also seems to be inviting its wearer for a languid game of golf rather than an invigorating incline cycle. Who knows? Maybe the Softmint serene Garmin team have coined a 

relaxing new cycling style too…

Orica-GreenEDGE ~ 8/10

In case you didn’t know, mesh is in. It appears that Team Orica have taken their new season look straight out of New York Fashion Week’s Spring / Summer 2015 catalogue. With on-trend fishnet look sleeves and uppers, who cares if the kit is practical? It’s fashion, dahling…

Etixx-Quick-Step ~ 8.5/10

Team Etixx have taken Team Trek’s kit and injected it with some alpha male. The black body, high neckline, long sleeves and even ‘quick step’ mantra stapled down the side give Team Etixx the edge. If their performance is anywhere near as ‘panther’ as their look, we can expect strength and agility from the team in this year’s Tour.

Astana ~ 9/10

Potentially one of the most polarising kits of the competition is Team Astana’s. As a fan of controversial colour schemes, I am instantly drawn to this head-to-toe turquoise ensemble. Team Astana won’t be missed by cyclists or onlookers in this hue, and its summer sky-inspired feel should keep Team Astana in high spirits. They may not look like the dark horses of the competition, but let’s face it, the future is bright.

Movistar ~ 10/10

Well, this guy just looks like a winner. That latex shine seems to give this kit a Marvel Comics Superhero appeal with the streamlined stripe detail on the sleeves emphasising those superhuman muscles. The Movistar branding also seems to play into the subliminal suggestion that it could be Brad Pitt or Orlando Bloom riding the bike. Superhero, movie star, and cyclist rolled into one. Who wouldn’t want them to win?!

Tour de France 2018 - Stages 18 - 20

Introduction
The final three stages are here, and we have the queen stage, and epic final haul in the mountains before the famous final stage criterium around the streets of Paris. The dream is that no one will know who will win going into these final three days. The previous two weeks haven't been easy but it has been designed to keep the race exciting right until the final day. Stages 18 and 19 are really hard and both feature significant amounts of climbing and mountain finishes however they are totally different stages and will be incredibly hard for the team of the yellow jersey to control.

Stage 18 - Pamplona - La Pierre St Martin - 172km

We're staying in Spain for the start of this stage and after the roll-out from Pamplona the first 60km are almost entirely flat so expect to see the peloton riding hard until a break is formed, there will be a lot of teams by this point who have had very lean Tours and they will be looking for a stage win today. Expect to see a high quality break forming early on who will be able to take their advantage onto the opening climb, Alto Aristu (4.7km @ 6.3%). From the bottom of this climb though the race takes on a very different shape, since the start of the stage we've had under 700m of climbing but in the final 110km we cram 3,700m of climbing. After the Aristu there's some rolling terrain towards the French border and the Port de Larrau. This climb has been used twice before in the Tour from its harder northern side but it's still going to be an unrelenting 10km @ 6.3% from the Spanish side. From the top of the Larrau there's a very quick descent down to the village of the same name before a brief section of flat into the town of Saint-Engrace where the Saint Martin begins. The road to the ski resort will be used in the 2015 Tour de France but it will be from a due north direction so that it includes the Col du Soudet, the climb is steeper from this direction but it's shorter and includes fewer sections that are as steep as on this route. The start of the climb is fairly benign with nothing steeper than 6% for the first 3km. This is merely to lull you into the climb, what follows is 3km where the gradient kicks up to 11% before another lull and another sustained section which features the steepest roads of 25%! The riders can breathe a sigh of relief at this point but there's still 6km and 450m of climbing to be done before the top, anyone who was put into the red on the earlier steeper stretches can easily be dislodged on the final run to the ski resort.

Stage 19 - Laruns - Ris - 136.3km

If the Tour hasn't been decided by now then this will be an unbelievable final stage. There's no opportunity to be eased into the stage as we're climbing the Col d'Aubisque immediately from when the flag is dropped. The Aubisque is sustained and although you would normally expect an early break to go here, it won't be guaranteed on this stage. With a stage this short and as the penultimate one of the race, the team of one of the riders hoping to take the stage might decide to make this really hard from the start. There's very little flat ground on the route today so there's no really disadvantage from going for it early.
After the Aubisque we have the famous and painful Tourmalet to deal with from the west side. There's not much to say about the Tourmalet that hasn't already been said. It's incredibly hard and with just 52km to ride from the summit it will be a key strategic point in the race. Although the focus will be on the front of the race, share a thought for the sprinters. Because the stages are shorter the time limit will be reduced as well, there will be a few riders having an absolute nightmare here as they try and make it to the finish inside 25% of the winner's time.
After the Tourmalet there's a descent and then an immediate climb of the Col d'Aspin, it's the easiest of the three "giants" today but at this stage it's an obstacle that will be too much for most of the peloton. From the top of the Aspin there's a long descent to the town of Arreau and a brief section of flat before the final test of the 2018 Tour. The Cote de Ris has never been used before but it's very steep and will be a fitting end to the Tour.

Stage 20 - Versailles - Paris - 93.7km
The traditional final dash is retained this year. The riders will start with a loop around the beautiful grounds of Versailles before they head into the French capital via the Bois de Boulogne. Don't expect anything other than the usual gradual pace wind up before the mass sprint to the line on the Champs Elysees.
Who will be in yellow though? The lack of time trialling kilometers means that you don't need to be strong against the clock to win here which brings guys like Pozzovivo, J.Rodriguez and Bardet into the frame. However, there's not loads of huge climbing days - even the days that do have a lot of climbing tend to have periods where the difficulties do abate. In reality the winner of this Tour is unlikely to be much different from a Tour which had 200km+ stages and an average stage length of well over 140km. But, the time gaps should be smaller and there should be excitement right until the final stage and the top 10 should be more compact.

Conclusion
So that is the whole route of the 2018 Tour de France. It started as a challenge to see if it's possible to design a Tour de France which no stages over 200km in length and with an average stage length of less than 160km. That has been achieved, but, has it retained the essence of the Tour? Is it still epic? Over the next two weeks I will be speaking to pro cyclists, race designers, fans and hopefully journalists to see what their thoughts are on this route.

Tour de France 2018 - Stages 12 - 14

Introduction
After a tough few days for the sprinters it's finally time for more bunch sprints as the Tour heads towards the south coast. Before that though there's one final day in the Alps. As much as they might want to, the overall favourites can't ignore this stage, the final climb of the Col du Vence is seriously hard and it could unhitch many of the GC guys. After that it's two stages that look deceptively easy on paper but in reality will be very difficult if the conditions are just right.

Stage 12 - Briancon - Grenoble - 144.1km
It's ranked as a medium mountain stage but there's still 2,800m of vertical ascent in less than 100 miles of riding. The first 28km are all uphill as the peloton climb the Col du Lautaret. The Lautaret is not one of the most beautiful climbs in the Alps, it's a main road up a valley which is straight for almost its entire length. It trends downwards at the top though for the best part of 70km so there is a benefit to the initial climb. The peloton will enter Grenoble with 30km to go and oh how they will wish that they can just nip one street over to the finish line. Unfortunately they have to leave Grenoble to climb the Col du Vence. The road is narrow and the climb is incredibly steep so don't expect any more than 10 riders to fight it out in the final sprint.

Stage 13 - Valence - Nimes - 145.3km
It's not totally flat today but there's only two categorised climbs on the whole route so it should be a large bunch sprint. We're following the Rhone river today all the way into Nimes. The whole day is custom built for sprinters, it's towards the coast so expect a headwind to push the breakaway group back towards the sprint teams. The finish is also built for a sprint. The last 2km are made up of two 1km straights with a 90 degree bend between them. The next few days are great for the sprinters and it will be a race for the green jersey until the Basque country where the overall contenders will come back to the front.

Stage 14 - Montpellier - Perpignan - 189.5km

It looks like the easier stage of the entire race, there's barely 700m of climbing in the whole day. It will be the easiest day as well, unless the wind blows. There's a tiny amount of the route which doesn't hug the coastline so if there is a wind expect the race to be blown to pieces. If there's no wind though, this will be another opportunity for the sprinters to get a stage win. The one minor obstacle actually comes in the last kilometer. Although the stage has been pan flat up until this point, there's a 15m rise after the red kite. This shouldn't prevent the sprinters from winning but it will mean that they have to time their efforts much better. If you go for a long one then expect your legs to die far before you hit the line.

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