Should the French be Concerned?

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We're 11 stages into the 2015 Tour de France and we've had a French stage winner and two French riders in the top 10. It doesn't sound like such a bad race for the French. However, the two early pre-race French hopes; Bardet and Pinot, have collapsed under the weight of expectation leaving Vuillermoz, Barguil and Gallopin to pick up the pieces. Of those three only Gallopin and Barguil are in line for a good overall finish.

The Gallopin Tour Story

It's been a good first 2 weeks for Gallopin

Tony Gallopin has crept up the leaderboard during the Tour without disturbing the French press and the pressure that that would bring. He did what so many of the main favourites failed to do and navigated the opening week without missing any major breaks. If you're looking for similarities to riders in the past then your best bet is 2013 Michal Kwiatkowski. He was a hilly classics style rider who ghosted to a high overall placing through the first week before drifting away when the mountains really kicked in.
I'm interested to see how far Gallopin can go and his victory in the Classica San Sebastian in 2013 was one of the finest pieces of bike riding I've seen in a long time but I fear that he will be found out on the Queen stage to Plateau de Beille tomorrow.

The Barguil Tour Story
Warren Barguil will almost certainly finish this Tour with the unwanted label of "France's next Tour winner". He's had a similar route to his high overall placing as Gallopin, a strong opening week, his bookended by a woeful individual time trial and team time trial though. He's been found out in the two Pyrenean stages so far but not had enough time put into him to fall out of the top 10. Barguil is also disadvantaged by the fact that as soon as the route crosses the first climb he is totally isolated.

Barguil can't rely on his team mates.

If Barguil can hold onto his top 10 position then he will be feted as the new Hinault, perhaps a more favourable outcome for the 23 year old Frenchman would be a collapse now and a stage win in the Alps.

What happened to Pinot and Bardet?
The collapse of both Pinot and Bardet has been one of the most surprising aspects of this years Tour de France. Both came into the race with genuine non-French results and both had had very good warm up races at the Dauphine and Tour de Suisse. Having said that the collapse of Pinot was perhaps more surprising, especially given his brilliant opening time trial where he was the highest ranked of the overall contenders. Since then he's lurched from one disaster to another, he was caught out on the second stage then dropped on the third stage then he had a mechanical on the cobbles. By day 4 he was 6:30 down but he still had the mountains to come and a top 5 was unlikely but still a possibility. Instead he looked more comfortable in the opening week and he's been dropped twice and lies 35th, 34 minutes down.

Pinot as he waited for a new bike on the cobbles.

Bardet's decline has been notable by just how low key it's been. He didn't have a great first week but he was in 21st position on the rest day and since then he's failed to finish in the top 20 on either of the mountain stages. There's still hope for him to find some form for the Alps and he could yet leave the Tour with a stage win but it would be a very optimistic Frenchman who would consider that a successful Tour.

Conclusion
French pro cyclists have spent the last decade teasing their fans that they might be edging close to an overall win, or even a podium in the Tour before completely tanking the next year. Thibaut Pinot is a first rate Grand Tour contender but he is mentally fragile and needs to improve on this. Perhaps the solution is to send him to compete at the Giro next year? Bardet is another exceptional rider, who, for some reason, has turned up at this Tour looking very second rate. Behind them the likes of Vuillermoz and Barguil can be placed in the box marked "ones to watch" although Vuillermoz is 27. Tony Gallopin could maybe turn himself into an overall contender but for the moment he's a hilly classics man who will struggle in the remaining stages of the Tour.
In short, the French should be worried, there will always be young riders coming through but in Pinot and Bardet they have two of the best climbers in the peloton and they need to nurture them to ensure that they fulfil their potential.