How Nairo Quintana Can Win the Tour

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It's the final rest day of the 2015 Tour de France and we go into it with the Chris Froome as the overwhelming favourite. Behind him there's four possible challengers; Nairo Quintana, Tejay Van Garderen, Alejandro Valverde and Alberto Contador. In my opinion, only Quintana can actually challenge Froome's domination. But how can he end Team Sky's domination?

Attack the Final Week

Can Quintana finally break Froome?

In 2013 Quintana went from having a 5.47 deficit to Froome to closing 1.20 in the final week. That final week included a time trial and only 3 mountain stages, this year he has 4 mountain stages to break Froome. In the 2014 Giro, Quintana also had a storming final week. He came from 2.40 down on the final rest day to leading by 2.58 by the end of the race. When put in the context of his previous third week rides the current 3.10 gap doesn't appear quite so massive.

Go From a Long Way Out
Quintana is yet to really launch a full blooded attack. It was clear that he didn't have the legs when Froome went away on La Pierre Saint Martin but since then he's clung to the British rider's wheel. Unfortunately for the Columbian, Froome can ride perfectly to a set power output and this discipline means that he is unlikely to crack on a climb and lose bags of time. Instead he might loose small amounts of time each day.
As we know Team Sky are famous for their marginal gains but these rely on a very controlled type of race. If Movistar can make the race chaotic early on then they can tear up the Sky plan. That also brings us onto the third way Quintana can end the domination of Froome.

Reduce Froome's Support

Movistar need to be the strongest team in the final week.

Froome was very well protected on the potentially damaging stage to Plateau de Beille. The attacks of Quintana were hauled back, firstly by Richie Porte and later by the extraordinary Geraint Thomas. The fact that Geraint has remained in 6th place is testament to the lack of explosiveness the main favourites have shown. Although Geraint is clearly a phenomenal rider he is a diesel in the mountains, wind him up and stick him on the front and he will quite happily ride for an hour and close down gaps. What you won't get is any sudden accelerations.
What Movistar need to do is try and isolate Froome as soon as they can in a stage. This might have gotten easier now that Pete Kennaugh has abandoned. Sky have been leaning very heavily on the trio of Poels, Porte and Thomas in the mountains. If Movistar can chip two of them off before the final climb then Froome begins to look very isolated and Quintana can strike.

Conclusion
Is it possible for Quintana to close this gap? Yes. But, the Brit has such a stranglehold on the race that Nairo has to loosen this grip before he can even think about taking time back. What is certain though, is that the little Columbian can't just wait until the final climb and then try and take victory, he needs to take some serious risks.