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Monday, 25 May 2015

2020 Vision - Liege-Bastogne-Liege

Introduction
Who knows what will happen to the Liege-Bastogne-Liege route in 5 years. I hope that they move the finish back to Liege from Ans and return it to a flat finish. Currently it's far too similar to Fleche and Amstel Gold and there's not much incentive for riders to attack before the final climb. However, after those caveats it's time to pick the four riders who I think will big the main contenders for a victory in 2020 in La Doyenne.

Julian Alaphilippe
Age in 2020: 27
Current Team: Etixx - Quick Step
Best LBL Finish: 2nd 2015

Alaphilippe getting airborne in a cyclo-cross race
Admittedly predicting that Alaphilippe will feature prominently in Liege in 2020 is a bit of a waste of my crystal ball's powers. Of course he will be a significant rider in 2020. The only question is whether he'll be riding it prior to a shot at Tour de France glory or as the crowning race in an Ardennes triple.
Alaphilippe has been performing consistently ever since he turned pro. In 2012 he scored a second place overall and a stage win in the Coupe des Nations Ville Saguenay, an U23 race in Canada. 2013 was another step up for the young Frenchman. He joined the Etixx feeder team and proceeded to get top 10s on stages in the Istrian Spring Trophy and the Circuit des Ardennes. His first win came in a stage of the Tour de Bretagne, he also got two second places in that race, he got 3 more wins that season; GP Sudkarnten, a stage of the International Thuringen-Rundfahrt and a stage and points jersey in the Tour de l'Avenir.
His step up to the elite level has been astonishingly seamless and well managed. He was largely kept away from the hardest races despite racing for 63 days. His biggest results were 3 top 5s in Catalunya, 3rd in Prudential RideLondon, 5th in Quest Plouay and 4th in Tour de l'Ain including a stage win and 2 top 5s. If 2014 was good then 2015 has been nothing short of mind blowing. Julian got a top 10 in all the Ardennes classics he then kept his form through the first 3 stages of Tour de Romandie get 2 top 5s and into California where he came second overall, to the brilliant Sagan, and won the Queen stage to Mt Baldy.
To be honest, it's hard to see anything stopping Alaphilippe from winning Liege-Bastogne at least once before 2020. If you have a spare £5 lying around it might be worth putting it on Alaphilippe to win LBL in the rainbow jersey, if such a bet can be put on.

Louis Meintjes
Age in 2020: 28
Current Team: MTN - Qhubeka
Best LBL Finish: 11th 2015

Meintjes going clear in the South African champions jersey
He might look like he's riding Jose Rujano's bike but he also, luckily, looks like he's riding it as quickly uphill. Meintjes is gradually building a palmares that is pushing him towards the elites of the sport. Although he may not grow into a classics rider his sheer ability over climbs means he cannot be overlooked for Liege glory in the future.
2011 was a big year for Meintjes, he didn't get a win but he did announce himself on the international stage with 18th in the World Championships Junior time trial and 2nd in the African Championships time trial. After that success 2012 was more of the same but with better performances in the mountains. He kicked off the season with two top 10s in the South African national champs road race and time trial. He followed that up with 3 top 10s in mountain stages in Tour de Savoie, Giro Valle d'Aosta and the Tour Alsace. He turned pro in 2013 with MTN - Qhubeka where he raced for 74 days. His best result was winner of the South African road race and time trial national championships, he also finished the season well with 2nd in the U23 World Championships and 2nd in the mountainous Tour of Rwanda. In 2014 he was again the South African national champion before an early season which contained a 2nd in the very hill Mzansi Tour in South Africa and 5th in the Giro del Trentino. His mid season was average but again he stepped up in the late season, he completed the Vuelta and finished 5th on a mountain stage and then came 8th in the World Championships time trial.
Meintjes is such a talented climber that it's hard to see how he won't be at the front of the peloton whenever it turns skywards for the next decade. He might not look like a LBL winner but after 11th this year his results make him look like a future winner of cycling's oldest race.

Simon Yates
Age in 2020: 27
Current Team: Orica GreenEDGE
Best LBL Finish: 39th 2015

Yates winning the Tour of Britain stage to Haytor in 2013
Predicting that Simon Yates will win races in 2020 is not the most risky of strategies. The Yates brothers have been a revelation since turning pro and it seems inevitable that between them they will have won at least one grand tour and one classic before they retire.
Yates' career really started in 2011, he came 13th in the Senior British road race championships at just 18 and then won a stage of the Tour de l'Avenir at the end of season. In 2012 he made a step up in competition and achieved 7 top 10s throughout the year, his best result was 7th on the Queen stage of the Tour of Britain into Caerphilly. 2013 was a massive year for Simon, he again got top 10s throughout the season but this time he supplemented that with 3 wins; two stages of the l'Avenir and the Queen stage of the Tour of Britain to Haytor, he also came 3rd overall in the Tour of Britain. Understandably he made the step up to World Tour level with Orica GreenEDGE in 2014 and his first season was promising but not spectacular; 12th overall in Pais Vasco and 3rd in the National champs along with a Tour start were probably the highlights.
2015 has been exceptional so far for Yates; he came 5th in Pais Vasco and 6th in Romandie. Another Tour de France appearance has been pencilled in and you would expect stage wins are the aim. With Orica lacking a GC contender I imagine that they will be pushing Yates towards that role which would limit his chances of LBL glory in 2020. However, whichever role they decide for Yates he is destined for cycling glory.

Louis Vervaeke
Age in 2020: 26
Current Team: Lotto Soudal
Best LBL Finish: DNF 2015

Vervaeke's climbing is his main strength.
The first three riders were basically sure fire picks so I have decided to go a bit left field with Vervaeke. However, when you see his junior palmares you'll understand that he's on exactly the same path as Yates, Mentjes etc.
He first really appeared on the international cycling scene in 2012 with 15th in the Giro Valle d'Acosta behind winner Fabio Aru but ahead of Meintjes. He backed this up in 2013 with 4th in the Tour de Savoie and 4th in the Valle d'Acosta. He turned pro with Lotto-Soudal in August 2014 but his performances that year as an amateur were sensational; 1st GC Ronde de l'Isard, 1st GC in Tour de Savoie and never finished lower than 5th on any stage, 5th overall in the Tour de l'Avenir and winner of the stage to La Toussuire. Since turning pro he has achieved decent not sparkling results but he is currently riding the Giro so it will be interesting to watch his progress after that experience. He's the youngest guy on this list and has arguably the best amateur results so it will be very interesting to see how he progresses, expect to see him on your TV sooner rather than later.
Vervaeke projects as more of a pure climber/GC type so it will be interesting to see whether he does ever give the Ardennes classic his full attention. If he does decide to go down the stage race route then it looks like Lotto have a replacement for the ageing Jurgen Van den Broeck.

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