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Monday, 11 May 2015

2020 Vision - Giro d'Italia

Introduction
The 2020 vision series will be posted every Monday and will look at the new generation of riders. I will pick a race and choose the 4
riders who I believe will be the main contenders for the race. Some will be riders who you've already heard about and some will be currently unheard of but who I think will be leading a peloton in 5 years time. There's a lot to look forward to in 2020, the Tokyo Olympics, the end of the Tory government and, for the purposes of this article, the 2020 Giro d'Italia.

Fabio Aru
Age in 2020: 29
Current Team: Astana
Best GT finish: 3rd 2014 Giro

Admittedly it's not a very left field suggestion and in one months time it could turn out to be very foolish if Aru's 2014 Giro result turns out to be a one time thing. Also, if Greg Henderson's twitter accusations turn out to be true then his career may be over before it's even really begun, although there's no evidence that they are true.
Aru is arguably the future of Italian cycling
However, he does have pedigree outside of last years Giro. He's been riding as an amateur since 2008 but it wasn't until 2009 that he really started to get noticed. He rode the mountainous Giro Dalle Valle D'Aosta Mont Blanc as a 19 year old and came a respectable 59th overall, however it was the stage to the mountain village of Ceresole Reale where he came 17th - just over 1 minute behind Pinot and Quintana but ahead of Diego Ulissi and Carlos Betancur.
2010 was another good year for Aru who came 13th in the junior Giro d'Italia and 4th in the Giro Dalle Valle D'Aosta Mont Blanc where he finished ahead of Andrew Talansky. 2011 was arguably his most prolific year to date with 4th in the Junior Giro d'Italia, 2nd in the junior Italian Championships and 1st in the D'Aosta Mont Blanc where he beat Joe Dombrowski into second and this years Romandie winner Ilnur Zakarin came 49th. Incidentally, in 2012 Aru and Dombrowski swapped places in the junior Giro. In 2012 he also bolstered his stage racing pedigree by winning the u23 race the Toscana-Terra di Ciclismo, the Giro Mont Blanc.
In 2013, and now one year into his career with Astana, he raced the Giro for the first time finishing 5th on the stage to Tre Cime di Lavaredo. He also saw success in Giro del Trentino where he came 4th ahead of Bradley Wiggins but behind team leader Nibali. Last year was the Italians most prolific with 3 pro wins - 2 x Vuelta and 1 Giro win. He also came 5th in the Spanish grand tour after a 3rd in the Giro.
Despite being just 24, Aru has already proven to be one of the best stage racers currently riding and I believe the only thing stopping him from winning the Giro in 2020 is if he decides to focus on Tour de France success.

Kenny Elissonde
Age in 2020: 28
Current Team: FDJ
Best GT Finish: 33rd 2013 Vuelta
The winner atop the ridiculous Angliru

It's always difficult to predict future success of a French cyclist. The problem is that if you show any signs of potential you are immediately shipped off to the Tour and expected to get a podium place and win a stage. God fobid you fail as you are then labelled a has been and it's on to the next young rider. The Giro would be a perfect place for young French riders to test their Grand Tour skills without being under the intense media focus of the Tour, and, it's the hope that French teams will start doing that which has led me to suggest him here.
Elissonde's last full season as an amateur was 2010 where he put together a decent run of stage racing success; 7th on the u23 Giro Dalle Acosta and 11th on the pro Tour de Languedoc-Roussillon. Although 2010 was successful for Elissonde it was 2011 where he really showcased himself as a future Grand Tour winner. He rode the start of the season as an amateur, winning the Ronde de I'Isard ahead of Romain Bardet and also came 7th in the junior Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He then turned pro as a trainee with FDJ and immediately came 13th overal
l in the Vuelta Burgos, the team's highest finisher.
2012 was a very slow year for the young Frenchman. He failed to finish a number of early season races and was given minimal chances in the World Tour. Eventually however, his talent started to shine through with 4th overall at the Route du Sud, held in the Pyrenees, and the win in the hilltop finish of the second stage of the Paris-Correze. Elissonde had an excellent start to the 2013 season with 13th in the Tour Down Under and 8th in the Tour of Oman. Although his form deserted him for much of the middle of the season it came back strongly in the Tour de l'Ain where he came 7th overall before heading to the Vuelta for a decent 33rd overall but a fantastic win on the Angliru was the result of his career to date.
Both 2014 and 2015 have been quiet but Kenny is currently at the Giro with very low media expectations and, you would expect, the support of his team mates in the high mountains. He's still very young, just 23, but another stage win or a top 15 would go a long way to showing that he is still on target for a successful future.

Eduardo Sepulveda
Age in 2020: 28
Current team: Bretagne-Seche Environment
Best GT Finish: Not Raced
The Argentinian might be the best rider on this list

Eduardo's inclusion in this list is reliant on a larger team noticing his talent and signing him up as he won't race the Giro whilst still contracted to Bretagne. Without wishing to descend into hyperbole there's a chance that Sepulveda might just be the best rider on this list, giving what he's achieved despite the quality of team he has raced on.
In his first season as a professional, 2011, he came 7th in the Rutas de America in Uruguay beating riders such as Fabio Felline and Marko Kump before showing his time trialling skills with a 12th place finish in the Pan American TT championships. Results stepped up again in 2012 with 22nd in the Tour de San Luis mountain stage to Mirador, amongst pro competition for the first time. He then followed that up with 2nd in the Pan American TT championships and 2nd in the Junior ZLM Tour. When he turned pro as a trainee in 2012 he came 3rd in the first stage of the Tour du Limousin and then 14th in the Tour de l'Avenir and 8th on the stage to Le Grand Bornard.
2013 was a bit of a down year for Sepulveda, best results were 10th Circuit de Getxo and 9th Tour de Poitou Charentes. He also showed continued time trial improvements with 10th in the u23 World Championship TT and 6th in the Volta a Portugal TT.
2014 was, without a doubt, the best full year for Sepulveda. He started the
year strongly with 6th in Tour de San Luis before following it up with 4th in the Tour de Mediterraneen which included a 2nd place atop Mount Faron. He continued his fine spring form with 20th overall in Paris-Nice and 5th in Criterium International.
Sepulveda has picked up his first win in 2015 and, barring injury, he is down to ride the Tour de France. His time trialling skills as well as adeptness in the mountains marks him out as a future grand tour winner. A stage win or a top 15 at the Tour, both of which he is capable of, should lead to a move away from Bretagne.


Davide Formolo
Age in 2020: 27
Current Team: Cannondale-Garmin
Best GT Result: Not Raced

Formolo is quite rightly held up as the future of Italian cycling, along with Aru. Despite still only being 22 he has already picked up enough results to suggest that his future success is as close to being a certainty as you can get.
The youngest rider on the list, Formolo could win the Giro or
a Ardennes classic in 2020
Despite racing as an amateur since 2009 his first good results came in 2012 as a 20 year old. He came 8th in the junior Giro d'Italia, 4th in the Giro Valle d'Aosta despite being 2 years younger than all the riders ahead of him and sandwiched a 2nd place in the junior Italian championships. 2013 was another step up in progression with a string of early season junior one day race top 10s followed by second overall at the Giro Valle d'Aosta and 5th overall at the Tour de l'Avenir including 5th on the stage to the Col de Madeline.
Formolo's first pro year in 2014 saw Cannondale ease him into the world tour. He started with a top 10 overall finish at the Tour de Taiwan and the Tour of Turkey before stepping up at the Tour de Suisse to finish 7th overall and 8th on the stage to Verbier. Perhaps his best result to date was 2nd in the Italian National Championships behind Vincenzo Nibali.
Davide is yet to take a pro win however he's building his career and he looks certain to have taken a few week long stage races and an Ardennes classic or Lombardy before 2020. He's currently racing the Giro in support of Hesjedal but if the Canadian can't hack it then Formolo is good enough to step up. A stage win or a top 15 is the target - if he can do both then he will have cemented his place as one of the most talented young riders in the peloton.

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