Where Will Mark Cavendish Move Next Season?

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I'll start this article by explaining that the fact that Etixx have let Michal Kwiatkowski go to Sky means that there's significantly more money to spend on Cavendish's new contract combined with the rumour that the Manxman will take a wage cut and it seems fairly clear that he will stay at the Belgian team. If he does then is this the right move? And if not then where should he move?

Etixx - Quick Step

It's been a successful season this year for the Manxman
but where will he end up next year?

He joined in 2013 and had his second best season by wins, 19. Since then he's recorded 11 wins last year and 14 so far this year. At Etixx he's recorded 2 of his 5 best seasons by volume of wins but he hasn't seen the quality that he experienced earlier in his career. In the last two seasons he's only managed 4 World Tour stage wins, one of those in a Grand Tour.
The benefits of staying at Etixx are that he is the team's undisputed sprint leader so whichever race he starts he will have at least some riders protecting his interests. The team are also lacking a genuine overall contender, especially with Uran's recent decline.
The negatives of staying are that Cavendish could've won three or even four stages at the Tour this year were it not for substandard leadouts. Given that he's now been teamed back up with Mark Renshaw for the past two seasons it's a surprise to see these mistakes still happening. The question is, who can replace the Australian and will the emergence of Fernando Gaviria challenge the Manxman?

Verdict: Cavendish will stay for next season especially now that Kwiatkowski has left but if the results don't improve expect him to move elsewhere for 2017.

Trek Factory Racing

Nizzolo is a Grand Tour points winner, what will his role
be if Cavendish joins?

The rumour is that Trek are lining up a move for Cavendish. On the face of it there's good logic behind this move. Trek aren't a prolific team, they've only won 13 races so far this season, one less than Cavendish so it makes sense for them to sign a high level sprinter. The problem is that even as far back as Leopard-Trek they've never really had a sprinter in the team and the set up required to bring Cavendish is vast. Firstly they need to develop, or buy, a lead out man to support Cav. Then they need to develop three or four men with big diesel engines who can form a train. Will Cavendish want to risk a year of his career by going to Trek?

Verdict: It makes sense for Trek but, at 30, it's too much of a risk for Cavendish to move.

MTN - Qhubeka

Edvald Boasson Hagen was brought in with the hope that he
would find his earlier form, that hasn't happened. Can Cav
do any better?

The biggest question mark about Cavendish going to MTN is whether they can afford his near £1 million salary. The second question is whether they are in a position to take full advantage of his sprinting ability. They shouldn't have an issue with lead out men given that they signed a bevy of ageing sprinters for this year. They should also be in a position to beef up their lead out train if they decide to turn to the World Tour for next season. But there's a general lack of quality in the team at the moment.

Verdict: It makes sense to head to a team with no overall contenders but why risk this move at this point in your career? I could see him joining the African team in 3-5 seasons though.

Tinkoff-Saxo

Tinkoff has the cheque book to bring in Cavendish, but does
it make sense?

Personally I don't see this as a realistic option but I'm covering it here because there have been rumours. Oleg Tinkoff certainly has the purchasing power to bring Cavendish over to the Russian team but why would he? He can't support Cavendish at the Tour because next year will be all about Alberto Contador. Also, he has Peter Sagan who is a virtually guaranteed green jersey winner, although he needs to reign in his attacks if he wants to win a stage. After his experiences with Sky I don't expect Cav to ever go to another team that has a very strong overall contender, Tinkoff-Saxo might become a more realistic proposition once Contador has retired.

Verdict: It doesn't really make any sense as a move either to Cavendish or Tinkoff. Again, it might be a more realistic option in a few seasons.